Nice vs Toulouse prediction 25.08.2024 | Ligue 1

• Competition: Ligue 1
• Date: Sunday, 25th August, 2024
• Kickoff: 16:00 UK / 17:00 CEST
• Venue: Allianz Riviera (Nice)

Over the past four seasons, Nice has shown a consistent pattern: whenever they compete in European competitions, they finish ninth in Ligue 1. However, when they fail to qualify for Europe, they tend to finish higher, securing fifth place - just outside the Champions League spots. Last season, Nice once again finished fifth due to their lack of European commitments, allowing them to focus on domestic competition. Now, it will be interesting to see whether they can break that negative trend and finish among the top five or six teams despite playing in the Europa League. Unfortunately for "The Eaglets," they started the season with a 2:1 loss against the newly promoted Auxerre and will be motivated to win points at home.

Toulouse had a historic 2022/23 season as they won the Cup title, which granted them the opportunity to play in Europe last season. However, in the domestic league, they finished 13 and 11th in the previous two seasons and are projected for another mid-table finish. Right now, the bookies see them as the 12th-best team in the league and do not give them too many chances of reaching the European spots. This season started with a goalless draw against Nantes, and they will now face Nice at Allianz Riviera, where they had little success in recent seasons.

Nice vs Toulouse pick: Under 2.5 goals

Last year, Nice were by far the best team in the league for this type of bet. 62% of their games (21 of 34) finished with fewer than three goals. Their defense has been simply incredible, allowing only 29 goals, which was the least in the league. In the first game against Auxerre, they allowed two goals, but the second one was after an uncharacteristic mistake by goalkeeper Marcin Bulka in stoppage time. If it weren't for that, we would see another game with fewer than three goals for Nice.

On the other hand, offensively, Nice looked terribly in the first game, struggling to even create good chances. That was their problem the last season as well, but a good defense kept them high in the league's table.

Toulouse opened the season with a goalless draw against Nantes in a game where Toulouse were a better team but lacked quality upfront to convert their chances. However, they lost their top goalscorer from last year, Thijs Dallinga, and did not add anyone to replace him. So, that poor performance shouldn't really surprise us. Even with Dallinga, Toulouse were a poor offensive team with an average of only 1.23 goals per game last season.

In the previous season, Nice won 1:0 at Allianz Riviera in Nice. Additionally, these teams were under 2.5 goals in four of the last five h2h games at Nice.

Considering all the above, we believe that an under 2.5 goals should be the safest option for this Ligue 1 tie.