Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund prediction 09.11.2024 | Bundesliga

• Competition: Bundesliga
• Date: Saturday, 9th November, 2024
• Kickoff: 14:30 UK / 15:30 CET
• Venue: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Mainz are playing their 16th consecutive season in the German top-flight division, where they were mostly in the middle or lower part of the league's table. This year, even though it is still early, "the 05ers" once again look like a team that will be around their usual standings. Currently, they are 13th with 10 points in nine rounds (1.11 per game), which is only slightly better than last season - 1.03 ppg. Their home record is particularly worrisome this year, and they will look for their first home win of the season against one of the strongest teams in Germany.

Borussia Dortmund are coming off a very strange season. They heavily underperformed in the Bundesliga, finishing fifth, but have been fantastic in the Champions League, where they reached the finals. This year, the Prussians once again look pretty disappointing in the domestic competitions as they were eliminated from the Cup and are in fifth place in the Bundesliga. However, they are again doing well in the CL, where they won three out of four matches. Their main problem this season is an unusually bad road record and constant injury problems.

Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund pick: Under 3.5 goals

Mainz are in terrible form. They won just two points in the last four games and scored only once - 0.25 per game. Additionally, they have shown very little at home this season and have scored zero or one goal in all six games. So, it is unreal to expect a dominant offensive performance.

Pretty much all of Borussia's good performances this season came at home. Away from home, they lost five straight, including the Cup game against Wolfsburg after extra time. In those five matches, they have scored only five goals.

Last season, these teams met twice and we have seen fewer than four goals on both occasions. Moreover, these teams were under 3.5 goals in four out of the last five h2h games.

Considering the previous h2h games, Mainz's poor form and poor home record, along with Dortmund's terrible road performance, we believe that an under 3.5 goal is the safest option for the Bundesliga tie.