Llapi vs Wisla prediction 18.07.2024 | Europa League

• Competition: Europa League Qualifiers, 1st Round, 2nd Leg
• Date: Thursday, 18th July, 2024
• Kickoff: 15:30 UTC +1 / 16:30 CEST
• Venue: Stadiumi Zahir Pajaziti (Podujeve)

After a 2:0 win for Wisla in the first leg of the first round of Europa League Qualifiers, Llapi will try to overcome the two-goal deficit at their home pitch, Stadium Zahir Pajaziti in Podujeve.

Last year, Llapi finished 2nd in the Kosovo Superliga, seven points away from the eventual champs, FC Ballkani. This is their first appearance in the Europa League Qualifiers, and they started it terribly. Before this year, Llapi played in the Conference League Qualifiers (in 2021/22 and 2022/23) but were stopped in the first round by two other Balkan teams, Shkupi and Buducnost Podgorica. Right now, the bookies do not have any faith in Llapi securing the second round, as the odds are between 6.0 and 8.0 on that bet.

Wisla, one of the biggest clubs in Poland, have had a difficult last few years. They were relegated from Ekstraklasa in 2021/22 and failed to return to the Polish top-flight division in the following two. However, last year, despite finishing tenth in Division 1 (18 points away from promotion), they won the Cup! In the first leg, Wisla were a lot better and now needs to finish the job. If they advance to the next stage, which is expected, Wisla will face off against SK Rapid in the 2nd round.

Llapi vs Wisla pick: Under 2.5 goals

Llapi played almost exclusively low-scoring games this pre-season, as they were under 2.5 goals in three of four matches. If we also count the Wisla game, Llapi scored only three goals in those five matches - 0.6 per game. Considering what we have seen from them in the first game in Poland, it is fair to expect that they will struggle to score in the rematch as well.

Last season, Wisla were not great away from home, even in the Division 1, winning only five of 17 games. Moreover, Wisla were much better offensively at home, averaging 2.06 goals per game, compared to 1.6 away from home.

Since Wisla already have a two-goal advantage, we believe they will try to hold the ball and slow down the pace of the game. Considering all the above, we believe that an under 2.5 goals bet should be the safest option for this tie.