Gil Vicente vs Vitoria Guimaraes prediction 11.04.2025 | Liga Portugal

• Competition: Liga Portugal
• Date: Friday, 11th April, 2025
• Kickoff: 20:15 UK / 21:15 CEST
• Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos (Barcelos)

Since their promotion to the Portuguese top-flight division in 2019/20, Gil Vicente have been mostly in the lower part of the league's table. However, they managed to survive. This season, it looked like they would not get involved too much in the relegation battle, but after losing three of the last four, they complicated their lives. Now, they are sitting in 14th place with just 26 points in 28 rounds. While they are pretty safe from direct relegation (eight points), they are only three points away from relegation playout. Considering their terrible form, they have every reason to be worried about the remaining games.

On the other hand, Vitoria Guimaraes have been between fifth and seventh place in Liga Portugal in the previous six seasons. This season, they are once again around their usual placement, as they are sitting in 6th place with 45 points in 28 rounds. For them, it is crucial to try to grab the fifth place, which is just one point away, because they could secure Europe from that spot, depending on the Cup results. But considering how well they are playing right now, that doesn't look like a problem.

Gil Vicente vs Vitoria Guimaraes pick: Under 2.5 goals

Gil Vicente are in terrible form, losing nine of the last 11 games! Their offense really struggled in that period, scoring only five goals - 0.45 per game. So, scoring against Vitoria Guimaraes could be a problem, especially if we consider Vitoria kept a clean sheet in two of the last three games.

Vitoria Guimaraes are a team that mostly plays low-scoring games, at least in the domestic league. This season, 16 out of 28 games (57%) ended with fewer than three goals. And away from home, that number is even higher - 64%!

Vitoria Guimaraes are a better team, no doubt about that. However, we are extremely reluctant to take a bet on them winning because of their poor road record. Instead, an under 2.5 goals bet seems like a much better option for this Liga Portugal tie.