Galatasaray vs AZ Alkmaar prediction 20.02.2025 | Europa League

• Competition: Europa League, 1/16 Finals, 2nd Leg
• Date: Thursday, 20th February, 2025
• Kickoff: 17:45 UK / 18:45 CET
• Venue: Rams Park (Istanbul)

After a dominant 4:1 win in the first leg for AZ Alkmaar, Galatasaray will try to turn things around in Turkey at Rams Park.

Galatasaray invested a massive amount of money in recent seasons and added high-profile players. However, their "only" success was in the Super Lig. They won the previous league title and are on pace for another one, considering they have six points from an advantage over the second-placed Fenerbahce. In Europe, they had high hopes, but it seems they will once again fail. Last year, they were eliminated from the EL knockout phase by Young Boys, and it looks like they will finish their competition again in the same round. However, the bookies still believe in them as they offer odds of around 5.8 to secure the next stage of the competition despite the three-goal deficit from the first leg.

In recent decades, AZ Alkmaar were mostly a top-five team in Eredivisie. This season, they are again around their usual placement as they hold 5th place with 40 points in 22 rounds - just three points away from the 3rd-placed Utrecht and the Champions League Qualifiers. Additionally, they played one game fewer than Utrecht and have a much better goal difference, so third place looks pretty achievable in the upcoming period. In EL, they had massive problems away from home as they won ten of their total 11 games at home. So, this game against Galatasaray in Turkey will definitely be a challenge.

Galatasaray vs AZ Alkmaar pick: Over 3.5 goals

In the first leg, AZ absolutely dominated the match, winning 4:1 while easily creating goalscoring opportunities. To be fair, one of the reasons behind that was a red card by Ayhan in the 51st minute. The second reason for Galatasaray's poor game was the suspensions of their three crucial players - Osimhen, Sanchez, and Torreira. With them in the squad, we expect them to offer a much better game. Now, Galatasaray will have to open up and start attacking from the first second of the game, which could easily result in a high-scoring game.

At home, Galatasaray have been fantastic, scoring two or more goals in 15 out of 18 games in all competitions. Mostly due to a good offense, they were over 3.5 goals in 11 out of 18 home matches - 61%.

AZ Alkmaar are in excellent form, winning four in a row while scoring 11 goals - 2.74 per game. But defensively, away from home, they really struggled, especially in the Europa League, as they allowed a total of nine goals in four matches - 2.25.

Considering all the above, we expect a super exciting, high-scoring game, most likely with both teams scoring.