France vs Croatia prediction 23.03.2025 | Nations League

• Competition: UEFA Nations League Playoffs, Quarter-Finals, 2nd Leg
• Date: Sunday, 23rd March, 2025
• Kickoff: 19:45 UK / 20:45 CET
• Venue: Stade de France (Paris - Saint-Denis)

After a 2:0 Split in the first leg of the UEFA Nations League A Playoff Quarter Finals, Croatia will travel to France for the second leg. The match will take place at Stade de France in Paris - Saint-Denis.

Croatia disappointed in the previous EURO as they finished the competition in the Group phase. Yes, they had a tough group with Italy, Spain, and Croatia, but it is still a terrible result for one of the best European and World NTs in recent years. In the UEFA Nations League Group 1, the Croats did OK, winning eight points in six rounds. But this latest win against France is definitely their best win in a very long time. The bookies did not believe in Croatia before the first leg to secure the next stage. However, considering they have a two-goal advantage, they are a big favorite to secure the Semi-Finals, with the odds around 1.5.

France are, without a doubt, one of the best NTs in the World. They were the vice-champions in the previous WC and were eliminated in the Semi-Finals in the previous EURO. They lost to Argentina and Spain in super close matches that could easily go their way. In the UEFA Nations League, Les Bleus did an excellent job, securing first place in a tough group with Italy, Belgium, and Israel. Still, now they are in a difficult position after losing the first leg, but they definitely have the potential to turn things around.

France vs Croatia pick: France to win and cover the -1 AH spread

In the first leg, Croatia won 2:0 and even missed the penalty. However, we cannot say they dominated the match because they had only 0.67 xG if we excluded the penalty. Despite winning the game, we believe France were a better team overall and deserved at least a draw. Also, Croatia are not a good road team, having won one point against Scotland, Poland, and Portugal in the Group phase.

France were excellent before that loss to Croatia, considering they were undefeated in the last five while winning four of those matches. Three of those were by two or more goals difference. At home, France won eight out of the previous 11 matches - 73% while beating some great teams like Belgium, Chile, Scotland, Netherlands etc.

Considering all the above, we believe that the hosts will win this game, possibly by a two-goal difference.