Esteghlal vs Al Nassr prediction 03.03.2025 | AFC Champions League

• Competition: AFC Champions League, 1/8 Finals, 1st Leg
• Date: Monday, 3rd March, 2025
• Kickoff: 16:00 UK / 17:00 CET
• Venue: Azadi Stadium (Tehran)

On Monday afternoon, Iranian Esteghlal will welcome Saudi Arabian side Al Nassr in the first leg of the AFC Champions League at Azadi Stadium in Tehran.

Esteghlal have been among the top three teams in Irani in the previous nine seasons, even winning the title in the 2021/22 season. But this season, they had an absolute disaster in the first half, and because of it, they are in 9th place, with 26 points in 21 matches. Since they are 18 points away from the top two spots, it is unreal to expect them to move significantly upward, even though they are playing a lot better right now. So, we expect them to fully focus on the AFC Champions League and the domestic Cup. In the AFC CL, they are a big underdog in this matchup, but we expect a lot closer duel than the odds suggest.

A new era in Al Nassr began with the arrival of Cristiano Ronaldo. The owners invested a massive amount of money in adding high-profile players, but we cannot really say they fulfilled the expectations, far from it. Their only trophy during the "Ronaldo era" was the Arab Club Champions Cup, which is objectively not that important. This season isn't looking better, as they were knocked out of the domestic cup and are in 3rd place in the domestic league with a points deficit compared to first-placed Al Ittihad. So, it seems their best chance of winning the trophy is through the AFC Champions League.

Esteghlal vs Al Nassr pick: Esteghlal to cover the +1.5 AH spread

Esteghlal are playing well now. They lost just against Persepolis in the last eight matches of all competitions. However, that loss (2:1) was on the road in a very close match. Moreover, Esteghlal haven't lost by two or more goals in 18 games in all competitions!

Meanwhile, Al Nassr are in terrible form, winning just once in the last four matches. Their only win during that period was against Al Wehda - by far the worst team in the Saudi Professional League. Additionally, Al Nassr haven't been great in covering the -1.5 AH spread away from home. In 17 road games, they covered the mentioned spread only five times - 29%.

These teams met in the AFC CL Group (League) phase, with Al Nassr winning 1:0. Moreover, in their three h2h games, Esteghlal never lost to Al Nassr by two or more goals. Considering all the above, we believe Esteghlal will make this game close and cover the +1.5 spread.